Republicans maintained their narrow majority in the US House, ensuring Donald Trump and his party retain unified control over the government. This outcome significantly reduces the Democrats' ability to limit Trump's influence in upcoming negotiations over trillions in expiring tax provisions, as he aims to extend existing cuts and introduce new ones promised during his campaign.
China's exports have shifted, with the U.S. now accounting for less than 15% of total exports, down from nearly 18% in the 2010s. As Donald Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs, analysts expect China to respond with significant fiscal stimulus, potentially exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to bolster its economy amid a real estate slump and sluggish consumer spending. The upcoming National People's Congress meeting is seen as a critical moment for these economic strategies.
Donald Trump’s election victory raises concerns for Ukraine, as he has indicated a potential reduction in military aid and a push for negotiations with Russia, possibly at the expense of Ukrainian territory. President Zelenskyy expressed hope for collaboration with Trump, despite fears of a "bad peace" that could jeopardize Ukraine's territorial integrity. Analysts warn that a Republican-controlled Congress may further limit support for Ukraine, complicating its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression.
Close presidential races historically trigger significant stock market rallies, with the S&P 500 averaging a 3.9% gain in tight contests since 1980. As the 2024 election approaches, polling shows a neck-and-neck race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, raising expectations for market performance post-election. Analysts suggest that the resolution of uncertainty typically boosts investor confidence, although unclear outcomes could lead to short-term market volatility.
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